SPC MD 858

MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
MD 0858 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
and into western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 270854Z - 271100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms continue to gradually increase/organize into a
small MCS over the AR/MO border region, with ongoing/local severe
risk.  New/downstream WW appears likely to be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of storms that
appears to be evolving into a small MCS over Howell County MO and
adjacent Fulton and Izard Counties in Ar, and trailing west to
Marion County AR.  

With an amply unstable airmass extending east to/across the
mid-Mississippi Valley, and given the convection's co-location with
a weak/mobile center of cyclonic circulation evident in water vapor
imagery, expect that storms -- and likely a local severe risk --
will continue east of the existing watch.  As such, new WW appears
likely.

..Goss.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35899236 35969283 36149322 36369332 36569305 36769251
            37259148 37379002 37278931 36728897 35728932 35509023
            35899236 

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SPC MD 857

MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
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Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...North-central and northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

Valid 270835Z - 271030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms -- and local severe risk -- continue moving east
across north-central Kansas.  New/downstream WW may be needed,
though some uncertainty exists.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms
crossing parts of north-central Kansas, with the strongest activity
now preparing to enter western parts of Russell and Barton counties.
While ample -- though elevated -- downstream instability appears to
exist, VWP data continues to suggest that the strongest portion of
the LLJ (ssely at 40 to 50 kt) remains across western Kansas.  With
low-level inflow much weaker (around 20 kt from the southeast)
across central and eastern Kansas, some uncertainty with respect to
downstream severe risk is evident, as storms eventually vacate WW
273.  Along these lines, the latest runs of the NCEP and ESRL HRRR
both suggest that storms will weaken with time.  Still, given the
fairly well-organized/intense character of the existing cluster of
storms, we will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or so
with respect to the need for downstream WW issuance.

..Goss.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38500034 39879922 39639726 39769589 38989553 38309577
            38500034 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook
      
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to lower
Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Missouri
  Southern Illinois
  Northern Arkansas
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwestern Tennessee
  Eastern Kansas
  Extreme southwestern Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe wind gusts are forecast from the Ozarks
  eastward to the lower Ohio Valley today. Additionally, very
  large to giant hail and tornadoes will be possible from the Red
  River Valley northeastward to the Ozark Plateau. Damaging winds,
  large hail, and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across
  the Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the
  Mid-Atlantic.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
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