Warning: file(http://www.wunderground.com/climate/extremes.asp): failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.0 500 Internal Server Error in /homepages/6/d330860172/htdocs/usaextremes.php on line 55

Warning: implode(): Invalid arguments passed in /homepages/6/d330860172/htdocs/usaextremes.php on line 55

Select Forecast Office:  

Forecast Discussion for Nashville, TN

000
FXUS64 KOHX 180836
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Sunday)

Dewpoints upstream clearly demarcate the location of the cold
frontal boundary which extends from western KY southwest through the
MO bootheel. Latest radar imagery showing pre frontal convection
along our Plateau. This activity will hang on for a few more hours.
Generally, will include low pops along our Plateau, but will await
latest radar trends just prior to 4 am to determine exact pop
percentages and locations. Otw, by this afternoon, capes will shut
off as convective temps easily exceed expected highs. Dewpoints will
drop down into the mid 60s with highs near 90. So not so bad. Skies
should be mostly sunny by afternoon.

Tonight, lows will be in the mid to upper 60s area wide as a sfc
high over the deep and mid south will be in control. On Saturday, a
shortwave axis will be immersed within the broad upper trough over
the eastern U.S. However, the bulk of the energy will be to our
north. Mrh values will be slightly enhanced across western areas
where perhaps an isol tstm or two may occur.

Despite there being no pop inclusion for Sat nt and Sun, humidity
values and temperatures will inch upward. West of Plateau, lows will
be near 70 and highs in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday thru Thursday)

As for eclipse day, Monday, August 21st, will go close to reasoning
of yesterday afternoon`s forecast package. This reasoning
coordinated with surrounding offices this morning also. Expect a
typical summertime day across the mid state on Mon. Will start of
with moclr skies with possibly some sct/bkn thin ci progress to
continuation of patchy ci with diurnal driven cu fields developing
by late morning into the afternoon hrs supporting ptcldy skies.
Isolated diurnally driven mainly afternoon light to mdt shwrs/tstms
may develop across srn portions of the mid state and the Cumberland
Plateau Region where low level moisture advection is expected to be
greatest. The reason why the mid state is having this wx pattern on
Mon is that sfc ridging will be in place across our area, centered
across the cntrl Appalachians.  Broad upper level ridging influences
aloft will also be in place. As for temps, will go close to
Superblend guidance values with late afternoon high temp values in
the lower 90s, upper 80s to around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region.
Referencing late afternoon high temp values a few degrees above
seasonal normal values here. Why, because these high temperature
values will likely be reached a few hrs later in the afternoon than
what would be in store for a typical summertime day per the eclipse
passage. Currently during the max/totality of the eclipse, on
average, hrly temps will are expected to cool at least 5-7 degrees
or so. No hazardous weather, i.e. strong to severe thunderstorms or
heavy rainfall leading to flooding is expected on Mon, let alone
the remainder of the work week too.

As for Mon night and Tue, will keep the mid state dry on Mon night
under ptcldy skies with mild overnight lows in the lower 70s, upper
60s Cumberland Plateau Region. Sfc ridging influences will continue
to shift slowly eastward, and will result, along with weakening
upper level ridging dynamics, in the development of light/mdt sct
shwrs/tstms across the mid state region on Tue. Afternoon high temp
values will be slightly cooler and closer to seasonal normal values,
around 90, mid to upper 80s Cumberland Plateau Region.

A frontal system will approach the mid state Tue night into Wed,
bringing increasing chances of light to mdt shwrs/tstms, with likely
pops across the entire mid state on Wed. Lows Tue night will
continue to be mild mainly in the lower 70s, around 70 Cumberland
Plateau Region. Wed Afternoon highs though will be at or slightly
cooler than seasonal normal values, mid to upper 80s, lower 80s
Cumberland Plateau Region.

Broad upper level troughing influences will persist across a good
portion of the ern contiguous U.S., including the mid state, thru
the remainder of the work week. However, upper level flow is
anticipated to be dry presently. Sfc high pressure influences out of
south cntrl Canada will begin to influence the mid state wx pattern,
with decreasing chances of light/mdt shwrs/tstms east to west across
region on Wed night. Lows Wed night will be very close to seasonal
normal values in the mid to upper 60s. Only iso light shwrs/tstms
anticipated across Cumberland Plateau Region on Thu with this above
mentioned CAA pattern settling in across our region, This will
result in afternoon highs generally 5 degrees or so cooler than
seasonal normal values on Thu, low to mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland
Plateau Region. Taking a quick look at Thu night and into Fri time
frame, influences of above mentioned sfc ridging pattern with its
apex building into the western Great Lakes region will bring dry
conditions to the mid state along with seasonably mild temps. Lows
Thu night will be in the low to mid 60s. Afternoon highs on Fri will
be mainly in the lower 80s, upper 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A nearly solid line of showers has developed
east of I-65 that will likely impact CSV overnight. On the other
hand, IFR clouds have invaded Clarksville with the surface front
still lagging well behind. Expect mainly MVFR clouds to continue
spreading eastward, and also look for some light fog to develop as
dew point spreads shrink to near zero. Conditions will improve
during the morning as fropa occurs, with VFR wx expected by mid to
late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  68  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    88  66  90  68  91 /  10   0  20  10  10
Crossville     82  65  86  67  86 /  30  10   0  10  10
Columbia       89  66  91  70  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   89  66  90  70  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Waverly        88  66  90  69  91 /  10   0  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31

NWS Nashville, TN (OHX) Office Area Forecast Discussion

Discussion Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO Script by SE Lincoln Weather