FXUS64 KOHX 290852
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
352 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
It was VERY warm early this morning with all stations in the 70s
at 3am...some even in the MID 70s...thanks to yesterday`s warm
front now located well to our north plus steady south breezes.
All the concentrated convection was well to our north overnight
and should stay that way today except for some isolated storms
that develop this afternoon. Afternoon max temps may approach
record values thanks to building heights and such a warm start to
the day. Deep surface low to our west will help increase southerly
winds today with gusts over 30 mph expected. Breezes will continue
tonight and help cause another balmy night.
Winds will increase further on Sunday and a Wind Advisory will
probably be needed as gusts could approach 40 mph. The next
threat for storms should hold off until late Sunday as the upper
level low presently over the Four Corners moves into KS. Will go
with likely POPs Sunday afternoon for the far western
counties...decreasing eastward across the midstate. However, near
100 POPs area wide Sunday night as band of storms sweeps from West
TN through Middle TN. A few storms could be severe Sunday evening
mainly west of Interstate 65. The rains will end late Sunday
night in most areas except over the Plateau where POPs are needed
though Monday morning.
The upper level low will move from KS toward the Great Lakes early
in the week, leaving TN in zonal flow from late Monday into early
Wednesday. However, models develop a new trough in the central
U.S. by mid week. This trough will bring rain chances back to the
midstate by Wednesday...and especially on Wednesday night and
Thursday. The forecast thereafter is complicated by the big
difference in the way the GFS and ECMWF handle the trough/low late
next week. The GFS has an interesting pattern of a closed low
moving slowly through the Southeast...south of TN...while the
ECMWF has a large trough over the eastern U.S. Either way, it
will be cooler and possibly showery late next week.
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
We start this forecast period with VFR conditions. However, you
can expect MVFR ceilings to develop at area terminals toward
daybreak, at heights of between 1500 and 2000 ft. Clouds should
scatter between 14z and 15z, resulting in a return to VFR
conditions...which should linger for the remainder of the forecast
We will keep decent low level moisture through 06z/30. However,
our atmosphere above 850mb will remain pretty dry, along with at
some modest capping between 850mb and 700mb. As a result, believe
our chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain relatively
low through the forecast period.
South surface winds will be gusty, with the strongest gusts
expected during the afternoon hours, when mixing is greatest.
Gusts between 15 and 20 kts will be common, with some afternoon
gusts between 20 and 25 kts.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 89 72 85 59 71 / 10 10 20 100 0
Clarksville 87 69 83 56 67 / 10 10 40 100 0
Crossville 84 66 80 60 70 / 20 10 10 90 60
Columbia 88 69 84 58 71 / 10 10 30 100 0
Lawrenceburg 88 69 84 59 72 / 20 10 30 100 10
Waverly 88 70 82 56 69 / 10 10 60 100 0
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