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Forecast Discussion for Nashville, TN

798
FXUS64 KOHX 162136
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

It was a nice afternoon by December standards. Surface high
pressure over the southeast was bringing sunshine mixed with thin
cirrus clouds, and temperatures mainly in the lower 50s.

For tonight, a disturbance will lift rapidly northward out of
Mexico. This will bring increasing clouds, mainly late tonight.
Our far western counties could see a few light showers by
daybreak. Forecast soundings show very dry low levels through 12Z,
so virga will likely occur for a while before rain reaches the
ground. Lows will be in the 30s.

On Sunday, the disturbance will lift quickly to the Great Lakes
region. As it does, it will drag a swath of moisture across Mid
TN, resulting in light showers. Most locations will have less than
one quarter inch of rain. Most of the showers will fall between 9
AM and 1 PM CST. After that, low level moisture will linger,
keeping low clouds in place with just a few remnant showers or
patches of drizzle. Highs are expected to reach around 50.

For Sunday night into Monday, low level moisture will linger, so
some areas of drizzle and fog can be expected Sunday night through
daybreak Monday.Temps will not fall much under the clouds, with
lows in the 40s. Look for a few breaks in the clouds Monday
afternoon with mild temperatures reaching the 50s to around 60.

Monday night through Wednesday, the next system will come out of
the Southwest States. We expect mainly cloudy skies with scattered
showers. The greater rain chances and amounts will occur over our
southern counties. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the
40s, and highs in the low 60s Tuesday, and 50s Wednesday.

Thursday still looks dry and mild with highs around 60.

For Thursday night and Friday, a large deepening trough over the
Central U.S. will begin to push eastward, bringing increasing
chances for showers along an advancing cold front.

For Friday night through Christmas, our forecast models are having
a lot of difficulty resolving a changing and probably very messy
wx pattern. Movement and location of the frontal zone varies
significantly across model solutions. It is possible the frontal
zone could stall, making it a very rainy weekend into Christmas.
It is also possible that cold air could build enough to bring some
wintry wx along the northern edge of the precipitation shield
somewhere across TN or surrounding states. It is also possible the
front could get pushed through with cold and dry conditions
arriving for Christmas. At this point, we simply do not know. The
important message is that wet or wintry wx could occur somewhere
over the region this weekend and into Christmas. Folks should keep
this in mind, check updated forecasts through the week, and think
about the possible need for flexibility with holiday travel plans
and activities.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

An upper level high pressure ridge will move from west to east
across TN this afternoon and tonight. So, expect VFR conditions
to continue at each TAF site the rest of today as well as tonight
with mainly cirrus clouds over the region. South and southwest
breezes will be just a tad gusty this afternoon but will
diminish before 00Z.

Rain chances will increase quickly early Sunday morning as a
weakening trough moves out of TX and toward the MS/OH Valley
region. Although the showers should last only a few hours and
remain fairly light, ceilings and visibilities should drop to MVFR
at each site. Rain chances should end by 18Z Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  50  43  60  46 /  10  80  10  10  10
Clarksville    36  48  41  58  44 /  20  80  10  10  10
Crossville     31  46  41  57  43 /   0  70  20  10  10
Columbia       35  49  42  60  45 /  20  80  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   34  48  42  60  45 /  10  80  10  10  30
Waverly        38  50  42  59  46 /  30  80  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........49

NWS Nashville, TN (OHX) Office Area Forecast Discussion

Discussion Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO Script by SE Lincoln Weather