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Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Tue, Jan 23, 2018 - Wed, Jan 24, 2018 D7Fri, Jan 26, 2018 - Sat, Jan 27, 2018
D5Wed, Jan 24, 2018 - Thu, Jan 25, 2018 D8Sat, Jan 27, 2018 - Sun, Jan 28, 2018
D6Thu, Jan 25, 2018 - Fri, Jan 26, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS48 KWNS 200908
SWOD48
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018